The Donut Hole in OBA Due to Exit Velocity + Launch Angle
July 27, 2015 | Abbi Nicolella
The donut hole explained: 22-deg launch angle. 70 mph just clears infield, 90 mph is a lazy fly ball, 110 mph is HR pic.twitter.com/Vvb0r6xany
— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) July 24, 2015
PITTSBURGH – On Friday, Diamond Kinetics’ Technical Advisor Dr. Alan Nathan released a series of tweets explaining the potential results of a batted ball, relative to launch angle and exit velocity.
In his first tweet seen above, Dr. Nathan references ‘the donut hole’.¹ As it applies to baseball, the donut hole is seen in batted ball results in terms of balls with 70 mph, 90 mph and 110 mph exit velocities (each with a launch angle of 22 degrees).
In his research, Dr. Nathan found that the results for the batter will be best if the exit velocity of a batted ball is either 70 mph (bloop single) or 110 mph (home run) – if you have a launch angle of 22 degrees. More specifically, the donut hole in this example is the gap in batted ball average between 70 mph and 110 mph.
As Dr. Nathan found, a ball with a exit velocity of 90 mph and launch angle of 22 degrees will be a “lazy fly ball” and most likely be an out.
Below is the series of tweets from Dr. Nathan that further explains the science behind the donut hole:
@pobguy LT: So, high OBA at 70 and 110 mph, low OBA at 90 mph. Higher exit speed not always better. This is the donut hole
— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) July 24, 2015
Here is a nifty looking plot I made from 4/09 HFX data. Hole is clearly visible 20-30 deg, 75-90 mph. pic.twitter.com/tGVUBE6Jfe
— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) July 24, 2015
@ABaseballPotato For baseball, optimum angle for max distance is about 28 deg. — Alan Nathan (@pobguy) July 24, 2015
@pobguy FYI, here’s an updated breakdown of exit velocities I just tweeted out https://t.co/n2yND27z5Z — Daren Willman (@darenw) July 24, 2015
@darenw Your stats show the donut hole, but it is not very pronounced since it averages over all launch angles. Big hole at 20-ish deg.
— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) July 24, 2015
@pobguy Interesting! What is ~.500 BABIP region 30-40deg + 60-70mph? Singles that drop in front of OF? — Colin Z. (@soxczar) July 24, 2015
@soxczar Yes, Texas Leaguers as they used to be called. Bloops that fall between infielders and outfielders.
— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) July 24, 2015
Updated breakdown of exit velocity stats this season… It pays off hitting the ball hard. pic.twitter.com/KQgm2ZEVHD — Daren Willman (@darenw) July 24, 2015
@darenw This agrees well with far less data from 4/09 HFX. I place more trust in the #StatCast data for exit speed. pic.twitter.com/rX840YYlCw
— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) July 24, 2015
@pobguy great, physics. But does wOBA or OPS by exit speed bear that out? — Patrick Maloney (@actuarygambler) July 27, 2015
@actuarygambler Absolutely! Look at the 3D plot I tweeted on Friday, babip vs exit speed and launch angle.
— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) July 27, 2015
#DKBaseball
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Footnotes:
- The donut hole refers to a gap in the middle of a series.
